Biden’s Exit Should Concern Climate Change Activists

The White House has confirmed that President Joe Biden will not be attending COP28. While it is not uncommon for Presidents to periodically skip the climate conference, the abrupt nature of the announcement, just days before the conference was set to begin, and the lack of a designated replacement indicates larger concerns that should alarm climate change activists and Democrats.

The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Summit will take place in Dubai from November 30 – December 12. The two-week conference is expected to draw 70,000 visitors, with national leaders meeting on the first two days to discuss policy goals and broker deals. While largely symbolic, the meetings are often viewed as the culmination of the negotiations made during the previous year, and bring major policy announcements, public commitments, and international agreements. Most notably, The Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21.

COP28 marks the first after the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement. Article 14 calls for the members to “periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals (referred to as the ‘global stocktake’).” The stocktake identified 17 key findings, with a particular focus on climate finance. It was expected that COP28 would bring agreements relating to increased funding of climate change projects and sustainability reporting. There is also a push by the U.S. and the European Union to reach a deal that commits countries to phase out fossil fuels, however that appears to have stalled.

On November 26, the New York Times reported that President Biden will not be attending COP28. The U.S. will still be represented by Special Climate Envoy John Kerry, who will be joined by National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi and Senior Advisor John Podesta. However, the White House initially stated that neither Vice-President Kamala Harris nor any other high-profile delegate will replace the President at the summit. Following pushback, the White House announced on November 29 that Harris will be attending.

This is an apparent reversal from rhetoric of the Biden administration in the lead up to COP28. Kerry has been active in early negotiations in anticipation of the conference and vocal about the need to prioritize climate finance and green finance to meet net zero 2050 goals. At the Bloomberg New Ecnomomy Forum in early November, Kerry called the 2023 summit “absolutely critical” to winning the fight against climate change.

The absence of President Biden, and the initial hesitancy to send Harris, indicates that no new major policy initiatives will be adopted at the conference. For global climate activists who believe that climate change requires immediate action, this potential lack of action should be alarming. While there are other opportunities for world leaders to reach agreement on climate issues, the annual UN Climate Change Summit is most closely tied to the Paris Agreement and international climate action. Failure to adopt new policies at COP28 will most likely result in little action until COP29 in November 2024.

However, one possible reason for Biden’s abrupt cancellation could be to allow him arrive later to save struggling negotiations. Notably, Biden’s public schedule is still empty for the first two days of COP28. When negotiations seemed to stall at COP27, Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinpin at the G20 summit and agreed to resume cooperation on climate change. If negotiations similarly stall, Biden may be positioning himself to step in and save an agreement, creating a political win that he needs as he struggles for re-election against presumption GOP nominee Donald Trump. The move could silence critics within his base that claim he is not doing enough on climate issues and provide a boost for the 2024 general election.