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With just two primary contests held so far, the 2024 presidential campaign appears to be inexorably heading toward another Biden-Trump election, despite the public’s lack of enthusiasm for such a matchup.
Just last week, a poll showed almost 2 in 3 voters agreeing that the United States “needs another choice” besides President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Yet already, the nominating contests appear to be all but over. Mr. Biden faces only nominal opposition, while all of Mr. Trump’s rivals, except for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have dropped out of the race and endorsed him. Polls show Ms. Haley trailing by an average of 50 points.
Why We Wrote This
As voters begin contemplating the next nine months, many are wondering, is a Trump-Biden rematch really the best the United States could do? Here’s what the lack of enthusiasm may signal for November’s election.
Part of the problem is a primary process that elevates the preferences of a tiny slice of base voters. At the same time, perhaps it’s not surprising that in an era of negative polarization – when voters increasingly say they’re voting against the other side rather than in favor of their own – two candidates with such low favorability ratings are on track to become the major-party nominees.
“We’re facing down having to decide between these two ill-fitted people again?” asks Abe Ott, a rancher in Durango, Colorado. “It’s like, didn’t we already do this?”
It’s the rematch many Americans say they don’t want but feel powerless to prevent.
With just two primary contests held so far, the 2024 presidential campaign appears to be inexorably heading toward another Biden-Trump election, despite the public’s lack of enthusiasm for such a matchup. Or in some cases, outright dread.
“We had the 2016 face-off; we kind of survived it. Then we got through a Biden administration. … And now we’re facing down having to decide between these two ill-fitted people again?” asks Abe Ott, a rancher in Durango, Colorado, who didn’t vote in 2016 and cast his ballot for President Joe Biden in 2020. “It’s hard to stomach. It’s like, didn’t we already do this?”
Why We Wrote This
As voters begin contemplating the next nine months, many are wondering, is a Trump-Biden rematch really the best the United States could do? Here’s what the lack of enthusiasm may signal for November’s election.
Large numbers of voters like Mr. Ott have repeatedly, emphatically told pollsters that they would prefer some fresh faces on the ticket. In a December survey, a majority of voters said they would be “dissatisfied” with both President Biden and former President Donald Trump as nominees. Just last week, another poll showed almost 2 in 3 voters agreeing that the United States “needs another choice” besides Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden.
Yet already, the nominating contests appear to be all but over. President Biden, who has only faced minor opposition, handily won last week’s unsanctioned New Hampshire Democratic primary, where he wasn’t even on the ballot, and is poised to dominate in the first official Democratic primary in South Carolina this Saturday. And after former President Trump swept both Iowa and New Hampshire, nearly all his opponents, except for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race and endorsed him. He’s set to win the upcoming Nevada caucuses, where Ms. Haley isn’t even competing, and he holds a commanding lead in her native South Carolina, where Republicans will vote Feb. 24.
“I honestly thought people had smartened up about Trump,” says Patrice Noble, a realtor in Polk City, Iowa, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 before caucusing this year for Ms. Haley. “It blows my mind, honestly. I can’t believe it.”
The situation can be blamed on a number of factors, from a primary process that elevates the preferences of a tiny slice of base voters to the fact that this campaign features the rare combination of both an incumbent president and a “pseudo-incumbent” who has led his supporters to believe he actually won the last election. At the same time, perhaps it’s not surprising that in an era of negative polarization – when voters increasingly say they’re voting against the other side rather than in favor of their own – two candidates with such low favorability ratings are on track to become the major-party nominees.
A big piece of the story here is America’s two-party system, says Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. He notes that it’s rare among democracies to have just two competitive parties, forcing voters into a binary choice.
Still, he adds, some of the fault ultimately lies with the voters themselves. “It’s not inevitable that our system selects candidates, and voters have to pick between the worst of two evils,” says Professor Grossmann. “Voters are not blameless. … It’s been clear for a long time that enough Republican voters want Donald Trump to be renominated.”
Indeed, there are definitely voters in both parties who strongly support their leading candidate. The fact that President Biden was able to win resoundingly in New Hampshire as a write-in candidate points to a certain degree of commitment from his backers. Likewise, 61% of those casting ballots in New Hampshire’s GOP primary said they’d be “satisfied” if Mr. Trump won the nomination, according to exit polls.
Many others, however, feel the process has let them down – and that it’s become too hard for less-well-known candidates to gain traction or have a realistic shot at winning.
“A Biden-Trump [rematch] shows that something is out of whack with our system, because we have two candidates who have pretty serious issues,” says Scott Hansen, a technology lawyer from Irvine, California. “I mean, this is our choice?”
Already, both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have transitioned to general-election messaging – a far earlier pivot than what typically occurs, setting up a marathon one-on-one battle that may wind up being the longest ever. In separate events this past weekend, the two men frequently referenced one another and emphasized the stakes if the other candidate were to win.
To be sure, Ms. Haley is still campaigning and says she is in the race for the long haul. One of her main arguments on the stump is that the country needs a younger leader who’s at the top of their game, rather than a choice between two men who are in or approaching their 80s.
Yet with the former United Nations ambassador running a distant second in every upcoming GOP primary contest, many have concluded that she has no plausible path to the nomination. Leading Republicans have been urging their party to close ranks around Mr. Trump.
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, who had previously remained neutral, recently said it’s time to “unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump.”
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
On the Democratic side, political professionals are also eager to begin the official general election campaign.
“I’m glad the primary is over,” says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for the Biden campaign in 2020. “When you have a clear contest between Trump and Biden – and everyone can stop asking themselves, ‘Is someone else going to run? Is someone else going to run?’ – you have a place where Biden can emerge as the leader.”
Still, there are risks in selecting nominees who don’t excite most voters. One is that many Americans will simply tune out the campaign and decline to vote. Although the 2020 general election had the highest rate of voter turnout since 1960, all three previous “rematch” elections in U.S. history recorded lower turnout the second time around.
There also could be a stronger-than-usual third-party vote. More than half of all voters in one recent poll said they would consider backing an “independent moderate candidate” if confronted with a Biden-Trump rematch. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who comes from one of the Democratic Party’s most famous families but is running for president as an independent, is garnering between 8% and 12% of the vote in polls. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat who’s not running for Senate reelection, has hinted at a possible independent presidential run.
Given the narrow margins in several battleground states last time around, even a small third-party vote could prove consequential.
“If it comes down to Biden-Trump, I just won’t vote, or I’ll vote third party,” says Anna Noble, Patrice Noble’s daughter. A high school senior who plans to attend Iowa State University in the fall, Ms. Noble caucused for Ms. Haley alongside her mother and was disappointed when Mr. Trump won her caucus site. She’s not a fan of Mr. Biden, either.
“Trump is just in it for himself, and I don’t think Biden is capable,” she says. “It just makes me way less enthusiastic.”
For now, some voters say they’re clinging to hope that something, anything, will happen to shake things up before November. Didn’t Mr. Biden promise to be a “bridge” candidate last time around? What if he surprises everyone and decides to step down? Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is facing 91 indictments across four criminal cases. What if he’s convicted? Maybe someone else will have to step in.
Mr. Ott, the Colorado rancher, says he would consider voting for a third-party candidate if one actually seemed viable. But more likely, he predicts, he’ll hold his nose and vote for Mr. Biden to oppose another Trump presidency. “I feel more of a sense of resignation than hope,” he says.
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